News Blog: The 2016 Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet

It’s no surprise that the presidential sweepstakes have already become white-hot at this early stage in 2015. But less than a month into the new year, the race is already far different than expected. Hillary Clinton, who many believed would leap into the race early in the year, has opted to hold off a little longer. And the two early leaders in the polls on the Republican side were considered, at best, longshots for the nomination before Christmas.

This weekend offered a good look at part of the Republican field, with many of the likely candidates visiting Iowa for Representative Steve King’s Iowa Freedom Summit. Here’s what we know about the presidential field right now.

* * *

The Republicans

Gage Skidmore

Jeb Bush

Is he running? It sure looks like it.

Who wants him to run? Establishment Republicans; George W. Bush; major Wall Street donors.

Can he win the nomination? No one really knows. He’s near the top of most polls so far, he’d rack up all-important endorsements from top Republicans, and he seems to be strong in the “invisible primary” for major donors. On the other hand, his polling is probably helped by his name, which is a definite double-edged sword. Many analysts also think his record is simply too moderate to win a nomination in today’s GOP.

Recommended: The Twilight of Saudi Power

What else do we know? Bush wasn’t at Steve King’s summit (no surprise given that his views on immigration are way to the left of King’s). Peter Hamby notes that since Bush’s surprise announcement that he was seriously considering a run, he’s mostly stayed out of the public eye.

Gage Skidmore

Mitt Romney

Is he running? He’s talking about it, but could still decide against.

Who wants him to run? Former staffers; prominent Mormons; Hillary Clinton’s team. Romney polls well for now, but it’s hard to tell what his base would be. Republican voters weren’t exactly ecstatic about him in 2012, and that was before he ran a listless, unsuccessful campaign. Party leaders and past donors seem skeptical at best of a third try. But a once-implacably-opposed Ann Romney has come around, so that’s something.

Can he win the nomination? He’s proven the answer is yes, but don’t bet on it happening again.

When will he announce? Within the next two weeks, according to Larry King of all people.

David Shankbone

Chris Christie

Is he running? Probably. He brushed off questions about a run during a blizzard-related press conference Monday, but Christie has been on a national fundraising tour; he attended the Iowa Freedom Summit, hardly an easy crowd for him; and he has formed a political-action committee.

Who wants him to run? Moderate and establishment Republicans who don’t like Bush or Romney; big businessmen, led by Home Depot founder Ken Langone.

Can he win the nomination? The answer probably depends on Bush and Romney. Christie might struggle for oxygen and cash if both run. He’s also significantly more moderate than the GOP base, though his Iowa trip is seen as an attempt to rectify that. His political standing has suffered since the George Washington Bridge probe; his favorability is atrocious; and he’d probably have to resign as governor to run, because of SEC rules that cover donations from companies that do business with the state. With such high stakes, he might not want to run at all if he doesn’t see a clear path to win.

When will he announce? No time soon.

What else do we know? If you can tell what is going on in this GIF, please let me know. Is he tossing the jacket away? Or catching it? And what does it mean?

Gage Skidmore

Scott Walker

Is he running? Probably.

Who wants him to run? Walker’s record as governor of Wisconsin excites many Republicans. He’s got a solid résumé as a small-government conservative. His social-conservative credentials are also strong, but without the culture-warrior baggage that sometimes brings. And Walker has won three difficult elections in a blue-ish state.

Can he win the nomination? No one knows. For all his strengths, Walker has never run a national campaign and isn’t exactly Mr. Personality.

When will he announce? Spring.

What else do we know? Slate‘s John Dickerson reports that Walker was the breakout star at the Iowa Freedom Summit, saying the governor elevated “his stature as a candidate who might achieve the elusive synthesis of pleasing the party base while also attracting a general election audience.” He could benefit in Iowa from his proximity.

Gage Skidmore

Mike Huckabee

Is he running? Most likely. He just quit his Fox News show and has a new book out.

Who wants him to run? Social conservatives; evangelical Christians.

Can he win the nomination? Huckabee sure seems like an old-fashioned flavor, having sat out 2012. But he was a close third in the 2008 GOP primary, and his combination of affable demeanor and strong conservatism is potent. As it was eight years ago, fundraising is probably his Achilles’ heel. He’d also be wise to stop attacking Beyoncé.

When will he announce? Late spring.

Gage Skidmore

Rick Santorum

Is he running? Yes.

Who wants him to run? Social conservatives. The former Pennsylvania senator didn’t have an obvious constituency in 2012, yet he still went a long way, and Foster Friess, who bankrolled much of Santorum’s campaign then, is ready for another round.

Can he win the nomination? It’s tough to imagine. Santorum himself said his chances would hinge on avoiding saying “crazy stuff that doesn’t have anything to do with anything.” National Review Editor Rich Lowry says his speech in Iowa was excellent.

Wikimedia

Marco Rubio

Is he running? Probably.

Who wants him to run? Rubio enjoys establishment support, and has sought to position himself as the candidate of an interventionist foreign policy. He could split support in Florida with Jeb Bush, though.

Could he win the nomination? Charles Krauthammer pegs him as the Republican frontrunner.

When will he announce? He’s currently “down to the last decision” between running for president or for reelection to the Senate.

Wikimedia

Ted Cruz

Is he running? Almost certainly.

Who wants him to run? Hardcore conservatives; Tea Partiers who worry that Rand Paul is too dovish on foreign policy; social conservatives.

Can he win the nomination? He hasn’t taken off yet, despite high visibility. Much of Cruz’s appeal to his supporters—his outspoken stances and his willingness to thumb his nose at his own party—also imperil him in a primary or general election, and he’s sometimes been is own worst enemy when it comes to strategy. But Cruz is familiar with running and winning as an underdog.

When will he announce? It’s a little unclear, but by June.

Wikimedia

Rand Paul

Is he running? Almost certainly.

Who wants him to run? Ron Paul fans; Tea Partiers; libertarians; civil libertarians; non-interventionist Republicans.

Can he win the nomination? That depends who you ask. The Kentucky senator would clearly be an unorthodox pick, with many stands outside his party’s mainstream. He’s relatively permissive on drugs and same-sex marriage, passionate about civil liberties, and adamantly for restraint on foreign policy. But Paul has worked hard to firm up establishment ties since reaching the Senate, and he could sell himself as a candidate with crossover appeal in the general election.

When will he announce? Having taken shots at most of his major rivals, he might as well have announced already. But he still faces a legal conundrum in determining whether he can run for Senate and president simultaneously under Kentucky law.

What else do we know? One of Paul’s greatest strengths is the base bequeathed to him by his father, three-time presidential candidate and former Representative Ron Paul. But as The Washington Post reported Monday, his father is also Senator Paul’s biggest headache, due to his penchant to speaking his mind on issues like secession. Ron Paul’s institute also publishes fringe views like the idea that the Charlie Hebdo attacks were a false-flag operation.

Gage Skidmore

Ben Carson

Is he running? Almost certainly.

Who wants him to run? Grassroots conservatives, who have boosted him up near the top of polls, even as Republican insiders cringe. Carson has an incredibly appealing personal story—a voyage from poverty to pathbreaking neurosurgery—and none of the taint of politics.

Can he win the nomination? Almost certainly not. Carson’s politics are conservative on some issues, but so eclectic as to be nearly incoherent overall. He’s never run a political campaign, and has a tendency to do things like compare ISIS to the Founding Fathers. It’s hard to imagine his candidacy surviving more serious scrutiny, but then again he’s reportedly building an impressive political organization, especially in Iowa.

When will he announce? “Before May 1.”

Gage Skidmore

Rick Perry

Is he running? Very likely.

Who wants him to run? Small-government conservatives; Texans; immigration hardliners; foreign-policy hawks. Noah Rothman makes a case here. (Perry’s top backer four years ago, non-relative Bob Perry, died in 2013.)

Can he win the nomination? Maybe, but who knows? Perry and his backers insist 2016 Perry will be the straight shooter who oversaw the so-called Texas miracle, not the meandering, spacey Perry of 2012. We’ll see.

When will he announce? May or June.

Gage Skidmore

Sarah Palin

Is she running? Her bizarre speech over the weekend makes a compelling case both ways.

Who wants her to run? Palin still has diehard grassroots fans, but there are fewer than ever.

Can she win the nomination? No.

When will she announce? It doesn’t matter.

Donald Trump

Is he running?

Others still in the mix:

John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Harold Stassen

* * *

The Democrats

Wikimedia

Hillary Clinton

Is she running? It’s a 100 percent chance, according to Politico.

Who wants her to run? Most of the Democratic Party.

Can she win the nomination? Duh.

When will she announce? Her team says it will be toward the end of this quarter—which ends in March—but she’s signed on to do a paid speech at the American Camp Association on March 19, so we can expect it after that.

What else do we know? Mike Allen has a detailed rundown on what Clinton’s inside circle will look like, from senior advisers to the vice-presidential shortlist to her campaign’s press strategy (not quite as antagonistic as before).

Wikimedia